A Lot Weaker Than They Look

As I said before, let's not forget the massive stakes for Republicans in the next Supreme Court nominee. Many Republicans would genuinely prefer to maintain control of the Supreme Court than elect the next President. Republican control of the Court, a de facto reality for more than a generation with total control going back a decade, is that big a deal. Yet there's a lot more weakness to Senate Republicans' embrace of the "three nos" yesterday than I think most observers, certainly most Beltway observers, realize. Not just no confirmation. But no vote, no hearings, not even courtesy meetings. They even took this bizarre step of having all the members of the Senate Judiciary sign a letter pledging absolutely not to hold any hearings of any Obama nominee. The signatures appear to be ink not blood. But who knows?

As I said, I don't need to be convinced Republicans will do anything to block President Obama from choosing Scalia's successor. But I think they protest way, way too much about the brittleness of their position and the potential electoral fallout. The emphaticness of the "three nos" isn't really necessary to convince anyone at this point. It's to make the point so ferociously, totally, almost maniacally that they can actually end the debate. But I doubt they actually can. And I think the fall out for Republican senators up for reelection in swing states this year is potentially far greater than people realize.