How much of a shot does Nate Diaz really have against Conor?

I am no Conor fan here, but objectively I don't see how Diaz can compete, let alone a very late replacement Diaz.

Diaz is popular and entertaining, no doubt. He has a particular style that could give trouble to anybody. But he is slow. He is flat footed. He wins by attrition. He takes a lot of punches, he barely checks leg kicks. He doesn't have a strong takedown or top-control game. Perfect recipe for a guy like Conor, a great striker that handles pressure very well.

I hope I am wrong, but this seems like another easy win for Conor. Yet again, he seems blessed by the MMA gods to avoid hard matchups. This matchup was going to be the decisive fight to Conor into legendary status, fighting a hard-nosed well-rounded fighter that could take it to him, at a higher weight class.

In my opinion, Conor has been blessed that RDA got injured : among all the contenders ready to fight, Diaz is the easiest one to beat in terms of style. On top of that, he can now claim that 170 is within reach, since he officially accepted to fight at welterweight.

This could still be a seriously entertaining fight, so I'm not against the matchup. But do some people really think Diaz has a shot here? Hopefully I am wrong.