Iran`s lessons refute capitulation being served to Armenian people on `shiny platters` - expert
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On his Facebook page, the expert notes that very useful lessons can be learned from the events in Iran if one follows them not as a news feed, but pays attention to the strategic developments. From this perspective, at least three conclusions are already clearly visible, which are very relevant for Armenia, including in the context of the defeatist propaganda currently being waged among the Armenian people.
In particular, the first lesson is that not everything in war is determined by material advantages. The United States and Israel clearly and significantly outperform Iran in their military-technical capabilities, which ensures the latter's tactical success. "However, tactical success does not necessarily imply strategic victory. The American-Israeli military operation, which most likely should have been completed in a few days (like the first version of the Russian Central Military District), has lasted more than three weeks without a clear strategy for a victorious conclusion. Competent Iranian resistance, as well as a strategic approach to the war's outcome, allow Tehran to compensate for the military-technical imbalance and, despite numerous losses, not only continue resistance but also gradually dictate the new course of the war," the political scientist notes.
The second lesson he emphasized is that the foundation of Iranian resistance is a clear strategic approach, which has not changed significantly despite numerous losses among the military and political elite in recent weeks. This resistance is based, among other things, on an asymmetric (disproportionate) operational concept, which entails inflicting maximum damage on the enemy through precise targeting and the use of available resources. "A clear example of this can be seen these days in the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States, which possesses the world's most powerful navy, and its allies are suffering the heaviest strategic blow from cheap Iranian drones, fast boats, naval bombs, and short-range missiles, which are dictating new rules of the game in the Strait of Hormuz. This is enough to undermine the global economy and give Iran a powerful negotiating tool, which even led to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil," the expert continued, adding that the concept of disproportionality has other manifestations (for example, targeting US allies, which effectively increases the scale of the conflict and, therefore, the cost of continuing the war). In other words, Iran is not playing the game that is being forced upon it (and in which it will lose), but is gradually imposing its own game on others. And at the heart of this new game lies absolute advantage, which is often overlooked by many.
The third lesson can be traced back to historical facts. When Napoleon attempted to quickly conquer Russia in the early 19th century, he took many factors into account, except for one: weather conditions. After the defeat of Napoleon and other Western armies on Russian soil, there is often talk of "General Frost" (referring to the extremely cold winters of the Russian world and the impossibility of conducting military operations in them), who, like an invisible force, helped the Russian side win. "If we apply this artistic analogy to Iran, we could say that Iran has its own general: the General of Geography. Iranian strategy is based on a complete understanding of the country's geography and its wise use. Figuratively speaking, the Strait of Hormuz and the Arab countries are right next to Iran, so pressure can be exerted on them even with a slingshot, a minimal set of weapons in the arsenal. This calculation underlies Iranian strategy: even if all of Iran's long-range missiles disappear, it's still possible to find a small boat that will create global problems in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing everyone to consider the Iranian factor," the political scientist believes.
He notes that the above is only the first page of the "open textbook" that is being written for the Armenian people every day. "There are other instructive points, but before we get to them, consider for a moment what would have happened if the de facto leadership of Armenia had... "...demonstrated strategic thinking during the 2020 war. I think you can guess that the outcome would have been completely different. Artsakh and all of Armenia. These lessons are still relevant today, and they certainly refute the constant capitulation that is served to us on shiny plates," the Turkologist concluded.