Northern California is in El Niño’s sights
The northern reaches of bone-dry California will get some drought relief this winter, federal climate experts predicted Thursday — the first time forecasters have suggested that the much-hyped El Niño could send storms to the part of the state where they’re needed most.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported at least a 33 percent greater likelihood of a wet winter across the Sierra Nevada and the Sacramento Valley in its newest monthly climate report.
Forecasts earlier this year limited the odds of above-average precipitation to Southern California, with most of the Bay Area added to the roster just last month.
“Especially with a strong El Niño, as we move into January and February, what we’ve seen from past El Niños (is) the precipitation will work its way northward through Northern California,” said Anthony Artusa, a seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The closely watched pattern is marked by warm waters in the equatorial Pacific that tend to push moisture into the atmosphere and influence weather worldwide.
Whether California will actually see drought relief after four dry years hinges not only on how far north El Niño steers storms, but on whether those storms bring snow.
Snow is more important than rain for the thirsty state, because it serves as a natural reservoir, melting during the dry summer months when rivers and creeks would otherwise be bare.
El Niño’s above-average ocean temperatures, alongside the larger global warming trend, made July the planet’s hottest month on record, averaging 1.47 degrees above the 20th century norm, scientists said.
While strong El Niños have correlated with above-average rainfall in California, including the blockbuster winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83, warm, tropical moisture that comes with the weather pattern hasn’t historically created conditions favorable for snow.
[...] dry won.
The forecasts for rain are being celebrated not only by weather watchers, but by many in California who have faced tighter water supplies and restrictions.