Top analyst firm Gartner predicts the 'sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028', along with worldwide PC shipment decline of 10.4% in 2026

It wasn't too long ago you could pick up a sub-$500 gaming PC or gaming laptop in the yearly sales. Sure, it'd almost certainly be reliant on an iGPU or older tech, and it wouldn't be the most powerful machine in the world.

But thanks to the ongoing memory crisis (and various other supply chain factors), budget PC prices have been creeping up—and now top analyst firm Gartner is predicting that even sub-$500, entry-level, non-gaming PCs will have disappeared by 2028.

That's according to a press release on the Gartner website, which makes for some grim reading for prospective PC buyers (via Wccftech). The report begins with a sobering thought: "Soaring memory costs are projected to drive worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4%" in 2026.

"Gartner estimates a 130% surge in combined DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of 2026, which will increase PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13%, compared to 2025 levels. This situation will concentrate demand on premium devices."

Ranjit Atrwal, a senior director analyst at the firm, said: "This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles."

Under the cheery title of "Entry-Level PCs Face Obsolescence", the report continues: "PC memory costs are expected to peak at 23% of the total bill-of-materials (BOM) up from 16% in 2025."

"This sharp increase removes vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable" says Atrwal. "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028".

For those of us of a gaming persuasion, this news probably doesn't seem all that surprising. However, gaming-capable machines have always commanded a price premium over their less-powerful, non-gaming counterparts, and it's still possible right now to pick up a discrete GPU-less productivity PC for well under $500.

These are the sorts of PCs I recommend to family members for everyday usage—where all that's really needed is a ageing-but-fine CPU, a decent chunk of RAM, and enough SSD storage to hold their endless reams of holiday photos and saved spreadsheets.

The idea that a PC of this sort won't be possible to find for under $500 in the next couple of years is pretty astonishing, and bodes poorly for those on a budget trying to keep themselves relatively up-to-date with a decent, yet cheap, home PC.

The report finishes with some worrying advice for vendors, too: "Soaring memory prices are expected to impact the PC market hardest, reshaping its financial dynamics. As a result, PC vendors should be prepared to accept a unit volume decline to sustain profitability, rather than eroding margins to chase price-sensitive buyers."

Basically, don't bother trying to absorb the costs. You'll sell less, and it's better just to accept and prepare for that fact now. Wonderful. I'm going to go and stick my head in a bucket now. Wake me up when 2028 is over, yes?