LEGAL DISPUTES CREATE UNCERTAINTY FOR TÜRKİYE’S MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY
Türkiye’s main opposition party, the pro-secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), is currently the leading political party in the country according to all polls.[1] The party delivered an impressive and unexpected performance in the 2024 March local elections, securing almost 38 % of the total votes and winning in nearly all metropolitan cities.[2] This was a natural consequence of the country’s poor economic and democratic performance in recent years under the AK Parti (Justice and Development Party) rule, as well as the leadership change within the CHP. On November 4-5, 2023, during the party’s 38th Ordinary Congress, the party’s young deputy, Özgür Özel, who was supported by CHP’s charismatic Istanbul mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, was able to defeat the party’s long-serving (2010-2023) chair, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and became the new leader. With Özel’s election and the refreshment of the party’s administrative team, the CHP began to be perceived as a new hope, and this was a decisive factor in the party’s rapid rise in votes, both in polls and in the 2024 local elections.
However, although things seem to be going perfectly well for the party, the CHP has recently entered a troubled period due to several legal cases against the party, as well as corruption and terrorism investigations that have led to the imprisonment of many municipal leaders, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. The lawsuit filed against the CHP, alleging that the 2023 Congress, which saw the change of the CHP chairman, was “tainted”, will be heard on Monday, June 30, at the Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance. According to the Turkish press and experienced political observers, due to President Erdoğan and the current government’s undisputed power over all bureaucratic institutions, the court will likely reach a verdict annulling the Congress. In that scenario, if the lawsuit results in an “absolute nullity”, meaning the Congress is declared null and void, the party’s former chair, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, would regain the leadership.[3] Despite serious efforts within the party to convince Kılıçdaroğlu not to take a move that would facilitate the country’s authoritarian transformation, it appears that the previous chair is very angry about the attitudes against him after the Congress and thus supports the legal process. To convince Kılıçdaroğlu, three former CHP chairs, Altan Öymen, Hikmet Çetin, and Murat Karayalçın, issued a joint statement ahead of the Congress trial, calling for Kılıçdaroğlu to reject all fraud claims against the Congress.[4] So far, Kılıçdaroğlu has not listened to these calls and acted as if he is ready to take over the party once again. Kılıçdaroğlu’s Alevi identity and solid support among Alevi party members also complicate the situation, fueling sectarian cleavages within the party.
If Kılıçdaroğlu becomes the party chair again, this might be a disastrous development for the CHP. The party’s young leaders, including its current chair Özgür Özel, imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and their entourage, who led the party to become the leading party in the 2024 local elections and in all current polls, might even decide to leave the party and establish a new political organization. This would certainly be great news for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Islamist-leaning, populist right-wing AK Party, both of which are still struggling to survive in politics despite their declining popular support. Moreover, even if the party is not split, the CHP might lose its credibility and popular support due to its negative reputation for being an unreliable political organization plagued by internal problems. That is why the annulment of the Congress and the return of Kılıçdaroğlu might symbolize another chance for President Erdoğan to get reelected in the next presidential election.
Ultimately, I hope that Turkish democracy will endure despite its significant challenges and will soon establish a well-functioning multi-party system.
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
ENDNOTES
[1] For some examples;
- SONAR – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esraT-ox2a4&t=108s
- MAK – https://x.com/MDRaporlar/status/1927001787904807137
- Bulgu – https://x.com/MDRaporlar/status/1931380681403199987
- Di-En – https://www.tele1.com.tr/foto-galeri/iste-son-secim-anketi-chpden-akpye-rekor-fark
- Themis – https://www.haber3.com/foto-galeri/haber/imamoglunun-aday-olamadigi-cumhurbaskanligi-ve-genel-secim-anketi-aciklandi-galeri-6228528
- ORC – https://x.com/orc_arastirma/status/1932453970083041438
[2] https://secim.hurriyet.com.tr/31-mart-2024-yerel-secimleri/secim-sonuclari/.
[3] For details, see; https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c20nlejqx4eo.
[4] https://www.diken.com.tr/chpnin-eski-genel-baskanlarindan-kilicdarogluna-kurultay-davasi-oncesi-cagri/.