California's clean-air problem is a lot bigger than just Trump

(Bloomberg) -- A chorus of skeptics is warning a new state objective -- to slash greenhouse-gas emissions by 40 percent from 1990 -- could simply be out of reach, no matter what Washington does. Even if power plants, ports, farms and factories continue to reduce toxic output, there’s little chance of hitting the target without an explosion in green cars and trucks. There is not a natural level of EV demand that is anywhere close to what California is seeking,” said Eric Noble, president of the CarLab, a product-development consulting firm, who has called state policies “a train wreck. California regulators and politicians hardly see it that way, pointing to technological advances that are cutting alternative-car production costs and a flood of new no-emission models coming down the pike. [...] they don’t pretend what they’re trying to do could be accomplished naturally, without government intervention. “We’ve made incredible strides in improving the air quality, in improving mileage efficiency, not just for California but for Americans,” said state Senate President Kevin de Leon, a Democrat. Trump -- who has called California “out of control” -- may go after the state’s special authority under the 1970 Clean Air Act to make its own pollution and greenhouse-gas rules. A White House official said a decision on the waiver will come after a review the president has ordered of the stringent national fuel-economy and emissions standards that Barack Obama set and the industry asked a receptive Trump to loosen. Emissions will have to plummet to 260 million. Battery-cell costs, for instance, have fallen to the point that they’re no longer an impediment to mass adoption, according to Sam Jaffe of Cairn Energy Research Advisors. [...] Jaffe is bullish about California -- short-term. Getting to 40 percent in the state in the five years after that will be a slog. Chinese companies are hustling; that country, grappling with crippling air pollution, is boosting EV requirements and incentives in a new-vehicle market that’s already 55 percent bigger than America’s. “Everybody wants to see vehicle electrification succeed,” said Robert Bienenfeld, assistant vice president for environmental and energy strategy at Honda Motor Co., because it’s the global long-term trend.’’ The trick for California is to compel it into a very short-term one. ©2017 Bloomberg L.P.