Whole Foods traffic has fallen by 14 million customers and Kroger could benefit most, says Barclays

Whole Foods Market Inc. has experienced a 3% traffic decline over the last year and a half, or about 14 million customers, according to a Barclays note published Monday. Traffic has declined six consecutive quarters, according to their analysis. Barclays estimates that the loss is in the range of 9 million to 14 million transactions annually, with an average basket size in the range of $30 to $50. Kroger Co. , with $16 billion in natural and organic sales, has the "most meaningful overlap" with Whole Foods and stands to gain the most, the note said. Barclays calls the loss "staggering" because "as most retailers know, once traffic has been lost, those patterns rarely reverse." And nearly half of Kroger's stores (47%) are within three miles of a Whole Foods. More than half (51.8%) are within five miles. Analysts say it would be a headwind for Kroger if Whole Foods manages a turnaround. Whole Foods shares closed down 1.4% and are down 11.2% for the past year. Kroger shares closed Monday down 0.6% and are down 23.2% for the last 12 months. The S&P 500 index is up 15% for the past year.

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