Scientist assesses the risk of the Caspian Sea disappearing

Tengrinews.kz — The level of the Caspian Sea may stabilize at its current mark of around -29.3 meters in the coming years. This was stated in an interview with RIA Novosti by Mikhail Bolgov, chief researcher and head of the laboratory at the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences.

“If in 1995 we recorded -26.5 meters — that was the maximum mark — then at the moment it stands at -29.3 meters. Under the current climatic conditions, we have concluded that in the coming years its level may stabilize at the present marks,” the scientist said.

He added that the possible range of this forecast is quite large.

“The expected fluctuation range is large; its standard deviation is almost one meter,” Bolgov noted.

According to the specialist, the Caspian Sea will not disappear in the foreseeable future; its level has reached an equilibrium state after 20 years of decline.

“In the coming years, we expect some stabilization, because the level had been falling for nearly 20 years and has now reached a certain equilibrium state. Around this equilibrium, it may fluctuate within a fairly wide forecast range, but it certainly will not fall by 30 meters. In the foreseeable future, the Caspian will remain,” he assured.

The level of the Caspian Sea had been steadily falling since the mid-1990s and by 2025 had dropped to record lows below -29 meters. In 2025, the leaders of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev, warned in their speeches of a possible environmental catastrophe for the entire region.