National Bank explained the base rate reduction

Tengrinews.kz — The National Bank of Kazakhstan has explained why it decided to cut the base rate to 15.75 percent per year. The main reason is slowing inflation, according to the regulator’s press service.
The National Bank said annual inflation in Kazakhstan has been declining for 12 consecutive months. In September, it stood at 9.3 percent. This was supported by the relatively high base rate and the strengthening of the tenge.
What is happening with prices
According to the regulator, price growth slowed across several categories.
Food prices rose by 8.5 percent year on year, compared with 9.5 percent previously. This was due to lower prices for fruit and vegetables, as well as slower growth in meat prices.
Non-food goods rose by 11 percent, compared with 11.4 percent previously.

“In particular, prices for gasoline and other fuels began rising more slowly. Services became 8.9 percent more expensive, with this figure remaining unchanged. Inflation expectations among the population also declined. In August, Kazakhstanis expected prices to rise by 12.1 percent over the next year, while in September the figure fell to 11.8 percent,” the National Bank said.

The slowdown in inflation and lower expectations of further price increases allowed the National Bank to reduce the base rate.
Why the rate was not cut further
Despite the positive trend, the National Bank believes that risks of accelerating inflation remain.
In particular, prices may be affected by high government spending, rising utility tariffs and fuel costs. Global oil and food prices are also adding pressure.
At the same time, Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow. GDP increased by 4.2 percent in the first nine months of 2026, with construction, industry and transport making the largest contributions.
The National Bank also warned that inflation could accelerate slightly toward the end of the year. One reason is last year’s moratorium on utility tariff increases. Since tariffs were reduced at the end of 2025, current prices may show a more noticeable increase by comparison.
What will happen to the rate in December
The National Bank said the likelihood of another change to the base rate before the end of 2026 remains low. Further cuts may be possible if price growth continues to slow steadily.
The regulator’s main goal remains unchanged — to bring inflation down to 5 percent by 2028.
The National Bank will announce its next base rate decision on December 4, 2026.
On October 23, the National Bank cut the base rate from 16.25 to 15.75 percent per year. This was the fourth consecutive cut since the beginning of summer. In June, the rate stood at 18 percent, before being reduced to 17 percent, then to 16.75 percent in July and 16.25 percent in September.
Earlier, analysts predicted that the National Bank would continue cutting the base rate. Most experts expected it to fall to 16 percent, although some considered a reduction to 15.75 percent possible. At the same time, analysts warned that inflation risks remained, meaning the regulator could proceed cautiously.