Dollar at 520 tenge: Zhumangarin outlines pessimistic scenario

Tengrinews.kz — Under a pessimistic economic scenario, the dollar exchange rate could reach 520 tenge, while oil could fall to $50 per barrel. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said this during a plenary session of the Kurultai.

In that case, average GDP growth is projected at 3.2 percent.

The official explained that the government is guided by the baseline scenario while also taking forecasts from international organizations into account. If the situation develops negatively, the Cabinet will revise the budget and cut spending. Zhumangarin did not specify which areas could face reductions.

Under the baseline scenario, the government has assumed an oil price of $70 per barrel and annual GDP growth of more than 5 percent. At the same time, the National Bank’s forecast for 2027 is 3.5 percent.

Earlier, we reported on the government’s budget forecast and that the projected dollar exchange rate in the draft budget had been changed from 540 to 480 tenge. Therefore, 520 tenge is the exchange rate used specifically for the pessimistic scenario, not the baseline budget assumption.

In September, First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin explained why the government had revised this indicator. According to him, the average exchange rate since the beginning of the current year had fallen significantly and stood at around 478 tenge per dollar at the time. This figure therefore became one of the benchmarks used in calculating next year’s budget.

“Clearly, there may be different indicators and a different exchange rate by the end of next year. You know that we can return with an adjustment on this issue. But at the moment there are no grounds for that; on the contrary, we have set a somewhat conservative rate of 480 tenge,” Amrin said.

As for oil, the budget was based on the consensus forecast of international financial organizations for 2027, which stood at $70.3 per barrel. Roughly this figure was ultimately incorporated into Kazakhstan’s baseline macroeconomic scenario.