Societal questions and state answers - a political scientist spoke about the tragedy on the Caspian

Tengrinews.kz — The tragedy on the Caspian Sea has demonstrated that communication plays a vital role in such situations, making it essential for the state to seize the initiative in the information space, according to political scientist Gaziz Abishev.
The expert analyzed news feeds and social media posts over the past few days. In his view, by the sixth day, September 29, the situation can be assessed differently than during the first three days following the tragedy.
"On September 24–25, the information environment was primarily one of anxiety, even reaching crisis levels in some areas. The public's main questions were: how many died, who has been found, what is happening at the scene, where is the military, and what are the rescuers and the state doing? The military failed to establish adequate communication," Abishev believes.
By September 26, according to him, the agenda changed abruptly, becoming more specific and substantial. The primary questions shifted from "what happened?" to "why did this happen?" and "what will be done next?"
September 27 served as the pivotal day for the shift in the government agenda, when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev voiced key points regarding the situation.

"The Head of State did more than just offer an assessment of the tragedy; he linked it to systemic failures within the army, replaced the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, and ordered a concrete Military Reform Plan to be prepared within ten days. The tasks set include improving the efficiency of defense spending, overhauling the personnel selection system, modernizing management, digitalization, professional training, and ensuring the safety of military personnel," the political scientist noted.

By the following day, the state began to shape a new communication framework, Abishev says. It followed a clear logic: "a tragedy occurred – the state drew systemic conclusions – the president decided to implement reforms".
"In particular, it was publicly explained that the state is taking not only operational but also systemic measures. It is worth noting a post by the Vice President, who explained the logic behind the systemic decisions and the President's instructions – ranging from organizing aid for the victims and conducting an objective investigation to personnel appointments and the decision to reform the army," Abishev said.
In his view, the state has seized the initiative and completed the transition to a new agenda. However, the expert adds that "local battles" are still ongoing on Threads. Nevertheless, even there, a shift is observed from initial emotional shock to an evaluation of the actions taken by the state and individual public figures.
Nonetheless, Abishev notes that the state now holds a much stronger informational advantage. On the first day of the tragedy, September 24, the state's dominance was largely limited to operational response. By the sixth day, September 29, the state held the advantage across a full spectrum of arguments and results of the work performed.
The political scientist explains that by this time, the final scale of the tragedy had been established, the search operation concluded, state support provided to families, suspects identified, and a criminal investigation was underway. In turn, the President provided a public assessment of the situation, made personnel decisions, and appointed a new Minister of Defense. A comprehensive audit of the Ministry of Defense has begun, and the Head of State has issued specific instructions for army reform, setting a clear ten-day deadline and defining the reform's directions.

"All this indicates that the state now has significantly more control over the narrative of the official response and public interpretation of the events. The authorities are no longer in a defensive position as they were on September 24-25, but have gained serious initiative following the President's decisions on September 27," Abishev notes.

At the same time, the expert believes that Akorda must still maintain this initiative and convert it into a sustainable public understanding of the reform results.
"Government agencies need to prove their professional competence by demonstrating to the public the work being done to fulfill the President's instructions. Only then will the state not only continue to shape the public agenda but potentially even increase its trust rating," the political scientist concluded.
Tragedy on the Caspian Sea
On September 24, during naval exercises in the Mangistau Region, several servicemen were swept out into the Caspian Sea. They were performing training and combat missions on the Caspian coast when weather conditions suddenly deteriorated and winds intensified.
Initial reports stated that 19 servicemen were swept out to sea. The Mangistau Region Akimat later clarified the figure to 17 people.
To investigate the tragedy, a government commission has been established. It is headed by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. The commission's tasks are to determine the causes of the tragedy and provide assistance to the families of the deceased.
Following the deaths of the servicemen, a criminal case has been openeda pre-trial investigation has been launched, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. Investigators are working to establish all the circumstances of the incident.
Detained individuals include the First Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan, two military unit commanders, as well as commanders of a marine infantry company and a boat.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expressed his deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of the fallen servicemen. On September 25, the Head of State declared a announced day of mourning.
On September 25, the bodies of two more service members who were swept into the Caspian Sea during exercises were found in the Mangystau Region. in the Mangystau region. This brings the total death toll to 14.
On the same day, the Ministry of Defense announced the conclusion of the search operation in the Caspian Sea.
On September 27, Dauren Kosanov was dismissed from his post as head of the Ministry of Defense. The position was taken by Aidos Myrzakhmetov.
On the same day, Tokayev held a meeting with the senior leadership of the Ministry of Defense. The President spoke of systemic problems in the army, ordered a comprehensive audit of the defense department, and directed the preparation of a Military Reform Plan.
Read also: New Defense Minister outlines changes for Kazakhstan's army