Warm, but snow in places: weather forecast for October in Kazakhstan

Tengrinews.kz – Kazhydromet forecasters have presented an advisory weather forecast for October 2026. Overall, the month is expected to be warmer than the climate norm across most of Kazakhstan, but residents of northern and central regions should expect frost and noticeable temperature fluctuations.
What October will be like in Kazakhstan
According to meteorologists, the average monthly air temperature in October is expected to be 1–2 degrees above normal across most of the country.
Temperatures close to the climate norm are forecast in East Kazakhstan Region, the northeastern half of Pavlodar Region and Abai Region.
Expected average monthly air temperature deviations from the norm in October 2026
On average, temperatures across most of Kazakhstan will range from +3 to +10 degrees Celsius during the month, while in the southern half of the country they will range from +11 to +16 degrees.
Expected average monthly air temperatures in October 2026
Where there will be more precipitation
Precipitation in October is expected to be around normal across most of Kazakhstan. At the same time, above-normal precipitation is forecast:

across most of West Kazakhstan Region;
in the west of Atyrau Region;
in the west of Mangystau Region;
in the north of Aktobe Region;
in the northwest of Kostanay Region.

Below-normal precipitation is expected across most of Zhambyl Region and Zhetysu Region, in the southeastern half of Kyzylorda Region, Ulytau Region, the southern half of Karaganda Region, Abai Region, as well as in the northern half of Turkestan and Almaty regions.
Expected average monthly precipitation deviations from the norm in October 2026
Astana to see frost and strong winds
In Astana, the average temperature in October is forecast at +6 degrees Celsius, which is one degree above normal (+5 degrees).
However, the warmer overall background does not rule out sharp temperature fluctuations. At the beginning of the first ten-day period, frost is expected at night, after which temperatures will rise to 0…+5 degrees. During the day, the air will first warm up to +10…+15, and then to +15…+20 degrees.
After that, colder weather is expected: down to -1…-6 degrees at night and +6…+11 degrees during the day.
In the second ten-day period, temperatures will continue to fluctuate. At night, temperatures are forecast to range from 0…+5 to -2…-7 degrees, while daytime temperatures will range from +12…+17 to +6…+11 degrees.
In the third ten-day period, another warming is possible, with daytime temperatures rising from +5…+10 to +11…+16 degrees. Toward the end of the month, colder weather is expected again: down to -3…-8 degrees at night and +2…+7 degrees during the day.
Precipitation in the capital is expected to be around normal. Rain and wet snow are forecast in the third ten-day period of October. In addition, winds may often strengthen to 15–20 meters per second in the second half of the month. Fog and black ice are possible at the beginning and end of the third ten-day period.
Almaty to see heat of up to +30
In Almaty, the average monthly temperature is expected to be +11.6 degrees, which is about one degree above normal (+10.6 degrees).
The beginning of the month will be changeable. In the first ten-day period, nighttime temperatures may first rise from 0…+5 to +7…+12 degrees, while ground frost of up to 2 degrees is possible at the beginning of the month. During the day, the air will warm from +11…+16 to +18…+23 degrees.
Then colder weather is expected: by the end of the first ten-day period, nighttime temperatures may drop to 0…+5 degrees, while daytime temperatures may fall to +10…+15.
In the second ten-day period, according to the forecast, temperatures will begin to rise again and may reach +21…+26 degrees during the day.
The warmest weather is expected at the beginning of the third ten-day period, when daytime temperatures may rise to +25…+30 degrees. Another decrease is then forecast, down to +18…+23 degrees.
Precipitation in Almaty is expected to be around normal. Rain is possible in the middle of the first and second ten-day periods, as well as at the beginning and end of the third ten-day period.
Forecasters note that the monthly forecast is advisory in nature and may be adjusted as new data becomes available.