Flood forecast for 2026: which regions of Kazakhstan are at risk

Tengrinews.kz – Kazhydromet forecasters have named the regions of Kazakhstan with the highest flood risk in 2026.
According to the main hydrological forecast, the greatest probability of flooding is expected in Akmola, Karaganda, North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan regions and Abai Region. A medium level of flood risk is expected in Kostanay, Pavlodar, Almaty and Aktobe regions.
High-risk zones
The forecast is based on many years of hydrometeorological observations. Autumn soil moisture, depth of freezing, snowpack volume and expected weather conditions during the snowmelt period were taken into account.
According to experts, under an unfavourable synoptic pattern, water levels may rise on certain rivers, meltwater may form, and populated areas, farmland and infrastructure facilities may be inundated.
Akmola Region
Risks are associated with the possible exceedance of critical levels on the Yesil, Kalkutan, Zhabai and Selety rivers. The most vulnerable areas are Astrakhan, Bulandy, Arshaly, Tselinograd, Atbasar, Yereymentau districts and the town of Kosshy.
Karaganda Region
Heightened attention is being paid to the basins of the Nura and Sherubainura rivers. A high probability of flooding remains in Bukhar-Zhyrau, Nura and Aktogai districts.
North Kazakhstan Region
Special control has been established downstream of the Sergeev Reservoir. The areas classified as high-risk include districts named after G. Musrepov and Shal akyn, as well as Yesil, Kyzylzhar districts and the city of Petropavlovsk.
East Kazakhstan Region and Abai Region
The risk is due to high autumn soil moisture, significant depth of freezing and large snow reserves.
In East Kazakhstan Region, the districts of Altai, Glubokoye, Zaysan, Tarbagatai, Samar, Ulan and Ulken Naryn are classified as risk zones. In Abai Region, the risk zones are Aksuat, Ayagoz, Beskaragai, Borodulikha, Zharma and Kokpekti.

Regions with a medium level of risk
Kostanay Region
In most of the territory, autumn soil moisture is below normal. The depth of freezing reaches 140 centimetres and in a number of districts exceeds last year’s values. In the northern and central districts, snow reserves are above normal.
In the Tobyl river basin, during the active snowmelt period, meltwater inflow to the Verkhnye-Tobolsk and Karatomar reservoirs is possible. Overall, a medium level of risk with the likelihood of local flooding is forecast.
Pavlodar Region
Autumn soil moisture exceeds normal. The depth of freezing in places reaches more than 200 centimetres. Snow reserves are 27–106 percent above normal.
During the flood period, significant volumes of meltwater are possible, along with the influence of the operating regimes of the Shulbinsk and Selety reservoirs, as well as the formation of ice jams on the Irtysh River. A medium level of risk is forecast for a number of districts and the city of Aksu.
Almaty Region
Autumn soil moisture is mostly below normal. In the southern districts the soil has completely thawed; in the rest of the territory the depth of freezing ranges from 1 to 76 centimetres.
In the event of a sharp warming and heavy precipitation in March, rain-on-snow floods are possible on mountain rivers. Almaty and the surrounding districts are classified as a medium-risk zone.
Aktobe Region
Autumn soil moisture is below normal, with the depth of freezing ranging from 24 to 150 centimetres. Snow accumulation is predominantly below climatic values.
During snowmelt, surface runoff may form and local flooding may occur in low-lying areas. A medium level of risk is forecast for most districts and the city of Aktobe.

Situation will be refined
Kazhydromet noted that the further development of the flood situation depends on temperature conditions and the amount of precipitation in March–April. After the rivers are freed from ice, specialists will begin publishing short-term hydrological forecasts on a weekly basis to inform government bodies and the population.