Here's who could benefit from the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's IEEPA tariffs and who could lose out

• The Supreme Court rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal.
• Businesses are celebrating the SCOTUS ruling, but tariff refunds may pose a fresh challenge.
• The federal government could be on the hook to refund $129 billion.

The Trump administration's cornerstone policy just suffered a major setback — but it's not bad news for everyone.

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled on Friday morning that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Most of the tariffs Trump imposed in 2025, including the "reciprocal" tariffs and the 10% baseline duties, made under IEEPA, have now been ruled illegal.

From consumers to the Trump administration, here is who will stand to benefit from the SCOTUS ruling, and who loses out.

The winners

Trade lawyers

Businesses, large and small, that want to get tariff money back from the US government will need lawyers.

Trump made it clear on Friday that the US government will not make immediate refunds despite the ruling that the IEEPA tariffs are illegal. That is because the Supreme Court did not explicitly state that the administration needs to make refunds. The matter could "end up in court for the next five years," Trump said in his fiery remarks.

Joyce Adetutu, an international trade lawyer at Vinson & Elkins, told Business Insider that a refund of this magnitude is "unprecedented" and that the process will likely be "daunting."

"Preparing for refunds, potential litigation, and contract interpretations will likely be a heavy lift going forward," Adetutu said.

Adetutu added that importers should immediately gather documentation, be ready to file protests, and plan for litigation costs.

Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a global logistics company, wrote on X on Friday that international trade attorneys he spoke with could charge clients 15% of the tariff refund amount to help them claim it.

Trump's political foes

Democratic lawmakers are now calling for Trump to hand out tariff refund checks to households.

"Donald Trump should return that money immediately. He has an obligation," California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Friday. "He took hundreds of billions of dollars from working folks, from the ag community, from small businesses for this vanity play, this illegal action, and he finally was held to account."

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sent Trump an "invoice" letter to Trump.

"On behalf of the people of Illinois, I demand a refund of $1,700 for every family in Illinois," he wrote.

Losers

The US government

Not only did the decision upend a cornerstone of Trump's economic agenda, but the federal government could be on the hook for a huge sum of money as US companies and importers fight to claw back the tariffs they paid.

According to the Customs and Border Protection, as of December 10, 2025, a total of over 34 million entries subject to IEEPA duties have been made by over 301,000 importers, amounting to around $129 billion in tariff revenue.

The Committee for a Responsible Budget said in a statement to Business Insider that the tariff ruling will reduce revenues on net by $1.9 trillion through Fiscal Year 2036 and increase debt by $2.4 trillion over the same period, assuming the tariffs are refunded without replacement.

"President Trump has been abundantly clear: Tariffs are here to stay, and the America Last era of American workers being ripped off is over," White House Spokesman Kush Desai previously told Business Insider in a statement, adding that the administration would find other avenues for Trump's trade and economic agenda.

Either way, tariffs and the impact of the ruling could complicate a 2026 midterm election message — especially on affordability.

It's complicated

Consumers

American households could see inflation and prices ease, but it may not happen quickly — and it may not happen across all goods, depending on additional tariffs implemented.

The New York Fed's Research and Statistics Group, along with research analyst Chris Flanagan and economist Sebastian Heise, found that 94% of tariffs were paid by domestic businesses and consumers in the first eight months of 2025. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis separately wrote in October 2025 that tariffs are exerting "measurable upward pressure" on consumer prices.

Josh Ketter, CEO of Spreetail, a top 100 US importer, told Business Insider that there may not be immediate price cuts.

"Retailers haven't passed on the full cost of tariffs to consumers over the past year; instead, they've seen their margins squeezed," said Ketter. "Their first priority for tariff refunds will be to make themselves financially whole again."

And, of course, the tariffs are not completely going away.

Some, issued under other statutes, remain, and President Donald Trump on Friday signed a proclamation imposing 10% tariffs for 150 days, starting on February 24, under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

There are exemptions for certain categories, according to the proclamation, including critical minerals and some agricultural products, and prices could come down for exempt items.

Businesses

Small businesses that led the charge against IEEPA tariffs are celebrating.

"It's impossible to describe the feeling of elation, of seeing that yes, we were right and the court agrees with us, and a feeling that justice prevailed," said Victor Schwartz, the lead plaintiff in the case against tariffs and the owner of VOS Selections, in a media event on Friday.

VOS Selections is a wine-importing company based in New York that specializes in European specialty wines. For now, the company will have more cash flow from no longer needing to pay tariffs upfront before a single bottle of wine even sells.

Schwartz said the amount of tariffs his company has paid so far sits in the "low six figures," and he doesn't know when he could see a refund.

Per Hong, global lead of Kearney Foresight, however, told Business Insider that companies should not assume rapid balance-sheet relief.

"Any reimbursement process is likely to move through the customs liquidation system and would be administratively slow, burdensome, and likely drawn out over years," said Hong.

Large global companies, including Costco, Toyota, and Chinese EV maker BYD, filed suits even before the Supreme Court decision to maintain their right to refunds. Some of the tariffs they have paid have already been processed through customs, a process called "liquidation," and getting the money back could require extensive litigation.