Turkey’s True Fear in Syria is Not Terrorism

The “Arab Spring” that swept through Syria in 2011 provided a historic opportunity for the Kurds. As unrest expanded, the Bashar al-Assad regime prioritized the defense of Damascus and coastal strongholds. This power vacuum left the Kurds and other inhabitants of North and East Syria largely responsible for their own governance and security.

When the Islamic State (ISIS) declared its caliphate and an international coalition formed to defeat it, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) emerged as the most critical ground force, fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with coalition partners. This Kurdish-led force played a pivotal role in liberating major cities—most notably the 2017 liberation of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, followed by the final territorial defeat of ISIS in Baghouz in March 2019.

The Pattern of Turkish Intervention

Driven by the goal of creating a 30-kilometer-deep “buffer zone” from the Iraqi border to Idlib, Turkey launched several large-scale military operations:

• Operation Euphrates Shield (2016): Aimed at preventing the linking of Kurdish cantons.
• Operation Olive Branch (2018): Resulted in the occupation of Afrin.
• Operation Peace Spring (2019): Targeted the area between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn.

Following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, Turkey and its proxies—organized under the Syrian National Army (SNA)—intensified attacks on Manbij, Kobani, and the Tishrin Dam. The objective remains the same: to displace Kurdish forces and resettle millions of refugees in their place, fundamentally altering the region’s demography.

The Myth of the “Terrorist Threat”

Ankara frequently justifies its hostility by labeling the SDF as an extension of the PKK. However, this justification has lost its credibility. Since the spring of 2024, and notably since October 2024, peace talks between the Turkish state and the PKK have reached significant milestones. Jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan has signaled a willingness to call for a total disarmament of the group.

If Turkey were truly concerned about border security, these diplomatic breakthroughs would have led to a de-escalation in Syria. Instead, Turkey continues to strike the Autonomous Administration’s infrastructure. This proves that Turkey’s true fear is not “terrorism,” but the system of self-governance itself.

The Fear of Autonomy and Inspiration

The real concern for Ankara is that the Kurdish model in Rojava will succeed and inspire similar demands for decentralization within Turkey. This fear is compounded by the fact that other Syrian minorities—such as the Druze in Suwayda and the Alawites on the coast—have also begun demanding autonomy following the regime’s collapse.

The emergence of a recognized Kurdish region in Syria, alongside the existing federal status of Kurds in Iraq, does more than just empower those two regions. It acts as a beacon for other parts of Kurdistan. This explains why, during the 12-Day War that followed the Syrian regime’s fall, Turkey expressed profound alarm over the potential for PJAK (the Free Life Party of Kurdistan) to establish a self-governing administration for the Kurds in Iran (Rojhelat), should the Iranian government face a similar collapse.

Ankara understands that a “Kurdish Bloc”—even if the regions are not technically unified into a single state—creates a powerful political, military, and economic reality across these borders. Successive elections in Turkey have proven that “Northern Kurdistan” (Southeastern Turkey) remains a distinct ethnic and political entity. Ankara fears that if its own Kurdish population sees successful autonomous models in Iraq, Syria, and Iran, they will inevitably demand a similar democratic referendum for self-rule.

Conclusion

The struggle in Syria is no longer about “fighting terror.” It is a struggle between the status quo of centralized nationalist states and a new model of decentralized democracy. For Turkey, the existence of a self-governing Kurdish region is an existential threat—not because of the weapons they hold, but because of the political idea they represent.

The post Turkey’s True Fear in Syria is Not Terrorism appeared first on Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University.