NFL Prop Bets Week 13: Leaning entirely too hard on the New York Giants

This week's props bet hard on the Commanders' run defense and the Giants' kinda/sorta passing attack.

We missed last week’s bets thanks to Thanksgiving and the fact most player props don’t come out until late in the week. That could be a good thing; Week 11 was my worst week in a while, effectively ending a month-long heater. Now we get to see whether a week off stopped that virus of bad picks from spreading or merely gave it time to incubate.

Official plays are in bold.

Daniel Jones OVER 195.5 passing yards. Jones typically comes to play against the Commanders, averaging 230-plus passing yards with a 3:1 touchdown:interception ratio in his three years of games vs. Washington. The Commanders have a punishing front but their rush defense (fourth in DVOA) is significantly better than their pass D (14th) which suggests Brian Daboll is going to have to create some magic through the air to avoid a three-game losing streak in New York.

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 247.5 passing yards. He hasn’t hit this number in four weeks, including games against the middling pass defenses of the Rams and Chargers. Miami will present plenty of opportunities for him to roast them downfield, but Garoppolo remains a short-target, yard-after-catch quarterback who depends heavily on his run game. He may be efficient, but he’s not prolific.

Mike White longest completion OVER 36.5 yards. The Vikings have given up receptions of 38-plus yards in four of their last five games. White had two such throws in Week 12 vs. the Chicago Bears.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 70.5 rushing yards. Barkley appears to be wearing down — which, since he plays for a team that gave him THIRTY-FIVE carries against the Texans, makes sense. He averaged 1.5 yards per handoff against the Lions’ 26th-ranked rushing defense in Week 11 and ran for 39 yards the following week against the Cowboys. Now he has to contend with Washington’s top five run D — a team he had 87 total rushing yards against in two 2021 matchups.

Garrett Wilson OVER 61.5 receiving yards. He was a consistent threat to hit this even with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 27th in DVOA.

Darius Slayton OVER 47.5 receiving yards. Yeah man, we’re leaning hard into the “New York’s gonna have to throw the ball” hypothesis. Slayton has had at least 58 receiving yards in each of his last five games.

Diontae Johnson UNDER 55.5 receiving yards. He’s only hit this total once in his last six games. Based on what we’ve seen from the formerly prolific wideout alongside Kenny Pickett, he’ll probably wind up with something like five catches for 50 yards.

Last week: 3-4 (.429)
Season to date: 52-28 (.650)