December global macro so far
US data remains consistent with an ideal solid growth scenario. The non-manufacturing conditions ISM index fell in November. This may be due to hurricane-related distortions, however, in any case it remains very strong.
Meanwhile, jobs data indicated that payrolls rose a stronger-than-expected 228,000 in November, with unemployment remaining very low at 4.1% and may push below 4.0% in the months ahead. However, it was another case of an ideal situation, with wages growth coming in weaker-than-expected at 2.5% year-on-year.
Small business confidence surged to near its 1983 all-time high, retail sales remain very strong, the December Markit business conditions PMIs remain solid, industrial production rose with upwards revisions to October, jobless claims are still falling and readings for job openings, hiring and quits remain very strong.
In fact, the level of job openings is now around the level of people unemployed, highlighting just how tight the US labour market is. Against this, core CPI inflation surprised on the downside yet again, with a fall back to 1.7% year-on-year from 1.8%. However, rising producer price inflation and the very tight labour market highlight the upside...