What does Russia’s 2018 Olympic ban mean for men’s hockey?

The IOC’s decision to ban Russia from Pyeongchang has major implications.

Men’s hockey at the 2018 Olympics already doesn’t have the NHL, and now it may not have the Russian national team, either, after the IOC announced a ban for doping violations Tuesday.

The news has major implications across international sports, but in particular it will impact the upcoming hockey tournament in Pyeongchang. Russia was expected to be the favorite in February without the participation of NHL players. Now that is also called into question as we wait to see how Russia and the KHL, the country’s top professional hockey league, respond to this decision.

The NHL already announced in April it will not be sending any players to the 2018 Olympics after extended negotiations with the IOC. It’s the first time since 1994 that the top league in the world isn’t participating in the world’s biggest international sporting event.

If Russia doesn’t send a team under a neutral flag, then men’s hockey in Pyeongchang will be almost devoid of players who casual fans are familiar with. So while we still have to wait and see what this IOC decision means in the end, the ramifications could be significant. Here’s the key information to know.

If Russia is out, then the KHL could be out, too

Russia could still compete in the Olympics under the neutral flag by having every men’s hockey player cleared under the procedure announced by the IOC Tuesday. Star winger Ilya Kovalchuk sounds on board.

However, there’s a chance the country doesn’t want to do that.

If that happens, then the IOC will need to figure out how to replace Russia as the 12th team in the tournament. There’s reportedly no plan in place for how that would be handled yet.

The KHL will also need to decide how to handle non-Russian players who want to leave their teams to represent their countries. The league has said in the past it would prevent players from going to the Olympics if Russia was banned from competition.

Now that’s happened, and we’re still waiting to see what Russia and the KHL will do. But trying to ban everyone could create problems for the league with the international hockey community.

The IIHF may put up a fight

The IIHF’s position, per TSN’s Bob McKenzie, is that the KHL must allow players to represent their countries in the Olympics because it’s an IIHF-sanctioned tournament and the KHL is part of the federation. (The NHL is not, if you’re wondering.)

So while the KHL will be free not to send Russian players if the country opts not to participate under a neutral flag, it may not have the power to stop other players from leaving midseason. That would be huge news for other countries that expect to have many players from the league on their Olympic rosters.

What could this mean for Team USA men’s hockey?

The biggest implication for the Americans is whether a Russian juggernaut will be in Pyeongchang. If they still send a team full of KHL All-Stars under a neutral flag, then it’s going to be difficult for anyone to overcome that to win gold.

But it’s also important for the construction of other countries’ Olympic rosters, including the U.S.

For an Olympic tuneup tournament in October, the Americans had seven KHL players on their roster: Forwards Dan Sexton, Brian O’Neill, and Ryan Stoa, defensemen Jonathan Blum, Mike Lundin, and Matt Gilroy, and goaltender Ryan Zapolski. The Canadians had 19 KHL players on their preliminary roster.

If Russia doesn’t send a neutral team and the KHL successfully bans its players from leaving, then the U.S. and Canada could lose access to key pieces unless they’re willing to leave their jobs and risk future paychecks. For journeymen hockey players who don’t make tons of money, that could be a major ask.

So the best-case scenario here for the Americans, at least in terms of winning gold, is that Russia doesn’t send a team and the IIHF successfully lobbies the KHL to allow players to go anyway. NBC might not be thrilled about not having Pavel Datsyuk, Kovalchuk, etc. to market, though.

The tournament could be a real mess

Now you start to see why the IIHF said banning Russia would be a risk. Without the participation of that country and the KHL, coupled with the absence of the NHL, the 2018 Olympic tournament could be really, really ugly. There’d be no star-studded favorite in Russia, and other countries wouldn’t be able to take players from the top two leagues in the world. And even if other KHL players are free to go, losing Russia as the team to beat changes the dynamic a good deal.

But that’s a distinct possibility now that Russian athletes are being required to compete under a neutral flag. Get ready for an Olympic men’s hockey tournament full of players you’ve never heard of.