What went wrong for the Raiders defense on the Chiefs' game-winning touchdown?

Breaking down the X's and O's of Patrick Mahomes' game-winning TD pass against the Raiders.

The Raiders had a chance. They held a 31-28 lead over the NFL’s best team. Just under two minutes on the clock. One more defensive stop. That’s all they needed to wrap up a sweep of the Chiefs and notch a perception-altering victory.

You didn’t have to watch the game to know how things ended.

Patrick Mahomes did what Patrick Mahomes typically does: He ripped out the defense’s hearts out with a ruthlessly efficient, seven-play drive that covered 75 yards and ended with a touchdown pass to a wide-open Travis Kelce.

The drive and the touchdown itself just looked entirely too easy…

(I did not choose the thumbnail for that video. I did choose not to change it.)

The play looked way too easy and, after the game, there was some discussion about who to blame for the bust in coverage. Was it Johnathan Abram, who appeared to vacate his zone in order to chase a scrambling Mahomes? Or was another defender responsible for tracking Kelce while Abram was afforded the freedom to roam?

Let’s try to figure it out.  Here are the dots for the play, via ESPN’s Seth Walder…

Mahomes-to-Kelce go-ahead touchdown, via Next Gen Stats. pic.twitter.com/ee9czdkZPe

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 23, 2020

The Raiders appear to be in a variant of quarters coverage that a lot of teams employ against the Chiefs when they go into three-by-one formations. I wrote about the 49ers’ (over)use of the coverage in Super Bowl LIV. It’s called “solo” and here’s a diagram of how it works…

The defense is essentially playing man-to-man coverage to the one-receiver side and playing zone to the three-receiver side. If that furthest inside receiver (labeled ‘3’ in the diagram above) runs a vertical route, the weakside safety is responsible for him.

Kelce is that No. 3 receiver in this example, so Abram was, in fact, responsible for the bust in coverage. The rest of the coverage played out exactly how it was supposed to.

It is a bit harsh to pin that play all on Abram. Mahomes does make a fantastic throw after drawing the Raiders safety out position by breaking the pocket. That’s the beauty of having a quarterback like Mahomes. Even when the defense has the right play-call on, he finds away to make the play work.